AD market weekly news W.E. 6/24/2022

Athira Pharmaceuticals

Fosgonimenton (ATH-1017), a HGF receptor agonist, announced that it failed to meet its primary endpoint in phase 2 trials on Wednesday (6/22/22). Investors were mainly looking for ATH-1017's superiority over AChE inhibitors after the 6-month period (26 weeks), however, when the data revealed that fosgonimenton failed to beat placebo in terms of change in ERP P300 latency, the stock cratered 66% to $2.72. 

Management tried to revive the situation by mentioning a post hoc analysis of 40% of participants that saw a potential beneficial 28-millisecond change in ERP P300 latency in the analysis as well as a -3.3 point change on the ADAS-Cog11. As a general rule, post hoc analyses are blaring red alarms for most biotech investors and that was reflected in the market, as we saw no noticeable change in the following days after the announcement. 

Support for the Auto-immune theory 

The amyloid hypothesis is dead, plagued by numerous clinical trial failures and many billions burnt in the process of trying to prove it. Dr. Donald Weaver was recently awarded the silver Oskar Fischer Prize for his research supporting the auto-immune theory, an alternate theory to the two front runners (Tau and amyloid). Hopefully, we see some more targeting theories taken to clinical trials. One that I found interesting recently that I came across was ultrasound combined with microbubbles loading BDNF Retrovirus to open BBB for treatment of AD:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2021.615104/full

Using ultrasound or microbubbles to open the BBB is nothing new, however, utilizing BDNF as a potential treatment is exciting. Currently, no companies have BDNF in clinical trials, however, I will be following this clinical trial very closely: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05040217

Creation of an AD index 

I'm creating a market index that tracks AD companies, more specifically, clinical trial stage companies that reflect capital flow into AD research. I decided to focus on companies that take a majority of their value from their AD projects to more accurately reflect the state of the market. For example, I'm excluding biogen since it has a robust pipeline, and even if one of the major AD trials from a biopharma incumbent fails it should be reflected in the broader AD market. 

I will be tracking this list of companies and measuring their change in market cap week over week with a starting base of $100 on 6/23/22.